AI and the Death of the American, Rags-to-Riches Story
In America, almost anyone can make it (for now). But what happens when AI exceeds human ingenuity and effort? We could become stuck in a new, permanent caste system.
Two key caveats before I dive in.
I'm not an AI alarmist. I'm a techno-optimist who understands that every technology has the potential to be used for good and evil. And on net, most technologies are used for good.
A much longer article was written about this (By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI). If you have the time, read that instead of this.
This idea hit me when ChatGPT made its big splash two years ago.
What happens when I can no longer make money (because AI outperforms me)?
And even more important.
What happens when this is true for everyone?
Well, if you've already reached the point of financial freedom with a few million dollars in the bank, you're golden. But if you're flat broke, it's nearly impossible to improve your lot in life. It makes it impossible to go from homeless to retired, a true rags-to-riches story.
The American Dream is still alive and well, for now. Immigrants coming to the US with a few dollars in their pockets can work hard and smart and, with a little luck, break into the middle and upper classes. It's this upward mobility that makes America one of the most attractive places on Earth for people wanting to improve their lot in life.
This all goes away when a person's intelligence, ambition, and effort are overpowered by what AI and robotics do at a fraction of the cost. When this happens, only people with money can continue to make money through purchasing and using robotics and AI.
In effect, everyone's relative upward mobility is blocked.
The ability for the next Elon Musk to show up and rocket up by building rockets is stunted.
This is not to cause a panic, but it means that wherever you are financially, within the next 2-10 years will be your relative ceiling for the rest of your life.
Of course, this is all a theory. And making predictions about a rapidly changing future is difficult at best. But it is a distinct possibility that you should consider as you look towards your future.
At the very least, it is better to be safe than sorry.